E-Letter
Welcome to issue 10 of Volume 6 of Toby's E-letter. This eletter is sent out monthly before the Channel Islands PC User Group (CIPCUG) meetings (except that Toby was on vacation and missed the October and November 2006 issues). It contains commentary on changes in the computer industry and suggestions for home and small business users. We try to give a longer-term perspective than most other newsletters. While Toby serves as technical advisor to CIPCUG and has a substantial following among club members, this eletter is open to anyone who wishes to subscribe. Each issue will have a small notice of the CIPCUG meeting, but otherwise everything is aimed at all users. A subscription link is included below. Enjoy.
Table of Contents
- Dance of the Elephants
- Automatic Update Blues
- RAM Minimums
- CIPCUG Notice
- Subscription Information
============== Dance of the Elephants
Intel has been making motherboards for a while. AMD meanwhile has acquired video card maker ATI. Most analysts think AMD will be making motherboards soon, perhaps as a result of another acquisition. It's only a matter of time before Intel and AMD are both manufacturing complete computer systems. The world's largest motherboard manufacturer, ASUS, also makes computers and servers. Whether their computers run Microsoft Windows, Linux, Mac OS or other, at least two entirely vertically integrated manufacturers are almost certain to be in the business within a few years. If you'll recall, at one time there were automobile manufacturers who created engines and frames. You went to a coachbuilder to get the body, interior and accessories. That didn't last too long in the automobile industry and it won't in the computer business, either. There are tremendous economies of scale involved if you integrate the whole process. The first one to do so will have a significantly less expensive product. For anti-trust reasons, the first one probably won't be Intel. My bet is that an AMD/ASUS merger is the first one. ASUS is feeling the heat from Intel's entry into the motherboard market, so they are going to have to retreat somewhere. AMD is the logical choice.
Microsoft is moving to provide Office via online subscription and to sell online advertising -- putting them head-to-head with Google. In a few years the two companies may be quite similar in what they offer. Whether Windows will make the transition is questionable. It may well be that everyone is using Linux as an OS and selling the services to subscribers or offering a more limited, free version of the software that shows lots of ads. As more and more hardware vendors merge into two super-manufacturers, the importance of the operating system will diminish.
The days of a computer manufacturer paying $100 per Windows installation and selling computers for $400 is rapidly ending. The amount manufacturers can afford to pay to sell a $400 or less system is far closer to zero than $100. Microsoft has three choices: (1) Significantly reduce the price of Windows; (2) follow Apple's lead and stick the Windows look-and-feel on top of Linux, or (3) pretty much abandon the low-end market and sell to high-end workstations and servers where the price of the OS is a smaller proportion of the overall cost. Of course, they could abandon Windows entirely and focus all their efforts on advertising revenue and subscription services over the Internet.
With Intel leveraging into Microsoft territory via hardware and the OS and Google well planted in the search/advertising/online services market, Microsoft is going to find itself squeezed from both sides. Currently, they regard Intel as something of a non-threatening collaborator and are spending all their apparent resources fighting Google as their recent grab of a piece of FaceBook makes clear. Google was in the hunt for a piece of FaceBook as well. It can't be an easy position for Microsoft to be the largest computer company on earth, with huge cash reserves, but seeing its main business lines' future in doubt and no clear path to safety. The obvious path out of the box is via advertising and subscriptions, but Microsoft isn't yet making money at this while Google is already making tons of money and growing like topsy. No longer is Microsoft taking on a smaller, poorly capitalized adversary in Google. There is almost certainly room for two giants in the advertising, etc. part of the Internet. Google will clearly be there. Microsoft is not so clearly there, nor are they more than a secondary player: AMD to Google's Intel.
None of this will happen overnight. It's going to take years. But, barring some gigantic sea-change in technology, it's going to happen.
============== Automatic Update Blues
I leave my computer at work on all the time so I can access it from home. Frequently, I have discovered that it has rebooted. At first I thought it was something I had done, but no, it turns out that OneCare turns on automatic installation of updates by itself even if you have selected to automatically download them but manually install them yourself.
In both XP and Vista, OneCare will automatically turn on Automatic Updates and Background Intelligent Transfer Service (BITS) even if users have disabled them.
============== RAM Minimums
It used to be that Windows XP would do all normal functions quite happily with 256MB of RAM. Not anymore. Non-power users now need 512. Blame Service Pack 2 and all the security bolt-ons since for the bloat. It takes horsepower to push all that security around. Vista has started out as a 1GB minimum (for all but Vista Home Basic -- a worthless invention), but don't expect to keep using the same. Expect the endless updates, patches and fixes to take their toll. You're going to need 2GB before long, which is pretty scary when you figure the hardware tops out at a bit over 3GB. Yes, Microsoft says 4GB is the maximum, but don't believe it. You'll net 3 and less than a half GB with 4GB installed.
============== CIPCUG Notice
You don't have to be a member of CIPCUG to subscribe to this E-letter, but we do make a short notice of upcoming events.
This Saturday, October 27, The Simon Wiesenthal Center will be talking about Confronting Antisemitism, Hate and Terrorism on the net.
November 17: Gene Barlow will be demonstrating some of his products.
============== Subscription Information
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