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============== Here Come Subscriptions
In the next 3-4 years we will enter an era where service contracts to a large extent replace software purchases (I wrote about this in a 2001 E-letter, but we are much closer now). We have become somewhat used to this as most of us purchase annual subscriptions to our antivirus program. However, every software company is about to change over to the annual (or other periodic) subscription model. Most especially, this includes Microsoft. Windows won't be the first program to convert, but it probably will some day. The rest of it will convert sooner. Say goodbye to dial-up Internet access unless you like waiting. Subscription software only works well on high-speed connections, which fortunately are pretty much the default. Interestingly, the US falls way behind much of the rest of the world in the percentage of high-speed connections.
Subscriptions will solve some huge problems for both vendors and users, but will create other issues. First, users will get software that works. We've all had programs that stopped working on our computers because of virus, spyware or problems with the setup on our computer. If the program ran on a server and we just logged in when we wanted to use it, we would no longer have a problem. As long as our computer booted and Internet Explorer (or other browser) worked, we'd be just fine. The company would keep the software on their servers tweaked with all the latest bug fixes and security patches. We'd just log on and use it. No more security patches. No more upgrades. If something new came out, we'd start using it immediately. How many users ever go to the Microsoft Office page to update their copy of Office?
Software companies would benefit enormously (or they wouldn't change). Piracy is a huge problem. If software were no longer distributed to users' computers, companies would have far greater control. No more could one licensed copy of a program be used on every computer in whole countries. In order to use the program, you'd have to log in. If many people started logging in with the same user name and password, they'd know -- and they'd stop it quickly. No more lost revenues to pirates. Nearly as importantly, their support burden would decrease dramatically. If your browser works, the program works. They only have to keep it running on their own servers.
In addition, they'd continue to extract money from people who currently don't upgrade. There are millions of copies of Microsoft Office 1997 still being used. Microsoft hasn't made a dime from those people in 8 years, yet they continue to issue security patches online for the product (name another major vendor who is still supporting software that old).
On the downside, once you purchased a subscription to a product, you are pretty much stuck buying the subscription every year. Hopefully, most of your data will be saved in a portable format like Adobe PDF, Rich Text Format (that's what most Office products now save as by default), comma separated variables or similar. Not many of us will sign up for a subscription where the data format is proprietary. However, the data won't be too useful unless you have a program to run it. And the programs will probably be mostly subscription-based. So you will be stuck buying something every year.
What does this mean for users today? Not a whole lot. But there are some things to think about before buying new software -- and we might change some of our habits. Before purchasing software make sure it saves data in a portable format, if not be default, at least as an option. Whenever there is a huge shift in the business model, some of the current leaders become dinosaurs. You may not want to continue with the current market leader. Make sure your data is portable. If you have an option, from now on save all data in portable formats (like .rtf in Word) and stop using proprietary ones (like Word's .doc).
Figure out what your upgrade cycle is and try to coordinate it with the expected time of software subscriptions. This will be an ongoing process, of course, but well worth keeping in the back of your mind. For instance, if you tend to upgrade Office about every 5 years, think about making the upcoming Office 2006 your last software purchase. Next one will probably be subscription.
If you are on a limited budget and are worried about whether you'll be able to afford your computer in the future, start (if you haven't already) looking at open source software. Generally, it's a bit harder to set up and learn how to use. But in many cases it is better than the market-leading commercial version. If you want to take a look at what is available, head out to www.sourceforge.net and look at the offerings. They are the largest clearing-house for open source, but by no means the only one. If you are on a limited budget and don't have the knowledge to use open source, join a user group. They exist in nearly every community and are a wonderful way to learn more about computing, share ideas and improve your skill. And you'll meet some nice people, too. We'll visit open source software in a future E-letter.
============== Rick's Rant: Fit To Be Fryed
[Note: My partner at Ventura County Computers, Rick Smith, writes a monthly column for the Channel Islands PC Users Group (www.cipcug.org), called "Rick's Rant." You'll notice a small change in style. His Rants will be a part of the E-letter every month.]
Salutations and greetings, faithful readers. For those of you who don't get out much or read the paper, Fry's Electronics has landed in Ventura County. It's conveniently located on the 101 freeway between Oxnard and Camarillo at the old House to Home store. What could be better for a PC enthusiast, except for CIPCUG that is? Fry's is an adult candy store with aisles and aisles of goodies. For those of you who have been there yet, and I know most of you have, it's OK; we forgive you. We know it's like moths being drawn to a bright light, but be careful you don't get burned.
What I'm trying to say is that, as a competitor, albeit a small one, we want you to shop at the discount store and get the good deals. I know what you're thinking. Why is he saying this? Well, there is a reason why our selection is more limited and our prices are higher, and it's not just because we purchase so much less. It's that the shelf life of PC products is shorter than fresh produce on a hot day. I mean, things get outdated seemingly overnight as new technologies and manufacturers come to play. There is no possible way that all these products produced can be sold at premium prices while new and better technologies become available. This is where the retail giants come in to play. Has anyone ever shopped at BIG LOTS? It is a chain that buys overstocked, discontinued, closeout and items from bankrupt businesses. It passes these items on at considerable discounts because it's better than throwing them away. We get all sort of offers from various sources that offer these items to us, but they come with a price: little or no warranty, lack of support and unknown brand names. Buyer beware applies in this case.
So where am I going with this? OK, I'll get to the point. We want you to shop at Fry's. That's right! Fill your cart up. Buy a new screwdriver while you're at it and go to town. Who knows? You may get lucky and get it to work on the first go around. But if you don't, get ready to dance. You know what I'm talking about. Calling the store where you bought the product. Humm? I wonder if they have a dozen people lined up to take your questions. Call the manufacturer of the product. That can work if they answer the phone. Speaking Chinese is very handy in this instance. Call Microsoft. Good luck. Sometimes they can be helpful, but you can easily become embroiled in the game of "call the other guy." You can always try "Googling it." Odds are there is some other poor sap who had the same problem as you, and he is posting a fix because he's a nice guy, but more likely you'll find others just like you trying to find the answers. It can be tough. I should know. I've logged more hours on hold than all my readers combined, I would think. But let me give you an example of what I'm talking about. . .
VCC is an authorized Intel product dealer (the sign on the door proves it). We purchase Intel mainboards in brown box 10 packs. One recent purchase was the 865PERL motherboards. Good hardware with lots of features and great performance. When we assembled our first PC, it would not POST. Try several different processors, but the supported processor would not work. I checked EVERYTHING, especially an error on my part, which happens more frequently than I care to admit. But nothing. The documentation says it should work, but no. After poring through Intel's Web site, I find that most of the processors that are supported require BIOS version 10026.00.20 and above. Lo and behold, stamped on the circuitry was 10026.00.19, and this version supports CPUs with the 512MB cache -- which aren't being produced anymore. They switched to 1 MB cache, which performs much better. This I found quite distressing, to say the least. They can still be found at our shop for a considerable discount. Sound familiar? So please patronize the newest member of our business community. We wholeheartedly support it! And, remember, you can always haul all the stuff you bought down to us, and we'll try to figure it out, for a small fee, of course. I need the money; this baby is already costing me a small fortune, and he doesn't even have his driver's license yet.
============== CIPCUG Notice
You don't have to be a member of CIPCUG to subscribe to this E-letter, but we do make a short notice of upcoming events.
Don't forget next Saturday's general meeting, November 19, at the Camarillo Boys & Girls Club. It's the third Saturday of the month, not the fourth, because of Thanksgiving.
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